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Assessing Current and Future Climate Risks–at a Fraction of the Time and Cost

March 27th, 2023

Green leak onions farm field mitigating climate risk for BASF Case study.

A large multinational corporation with 11 divisions, including agricultural solutions, was noticing an increase in climate volatility, particularly in regards to extreme weather events and persistent drought conditions — which together were raising new concerns and creating challenges for strategic planning. The company was looking for better tools for a more uncertain world and a partnership that would jointly inform strategic decision-making.

Challenge 1: Increasing the resilience of the supply of seeds and crops for buyers while improving the efficiency of producing new crop varieties at scale

In a trial engagement, ClimateAi was tasked with identifying suitable production locations for newly developed seed varieties in India — which would enable the company to more quickly, cost-effectively, and reliably launch new crops.


With the data the company provided, ClimateAi’s Climate Analogs Tool identified two optimal locations in India for one specific seed variety. Unbeknownst to ClimateAi, the company had actually been using the tool as a test for its own internal technology. It had already spent several years in trials to identify locations, and had come to the same conclusions as the Climate Analogs tool, which was able to accomplish in a few hours what the company had worked on for several years, at 10% of the cost.

Challenge 2: Evaluating how the climate is expected to change over the next 10-20 years for two chosen crop locations, the India tomato seed and the Italy leek seed — and identifying alternative expansion sites

The company was experiencing a significant output decrease in two key production regions: tomatoes in Maharashtra, India, and leeks in Fogia, Italy. As a result, the team wanted to assess climate risk exposure in these regions to understand if they’d be viable in the future using ClimateAi’s ClimateLens-Adapt tool for long-term strategic planning.


ClimateAi conducted two pilots with the company to assess climate risk exposure in these locations for the two crops. For the tomato seed, ClimateAi found that a major risk, rising temperatures, would constitute a brutal extreme heat threat that would lead to an approximately 30% output decrease in the region within 20 years. ClimateAi warned the company that the location might prove non-viable within the coming decades. They used this information to vet long-term investment strategies in the region. For leeks, they understood that this region of production was still expected to be suitable for 20 years even though risks like pest and frost were emerging, and decided to continue its investment in the region. In addition, they were able to leverage these insights to adjust production planning with more resilient seed varieties and better timing for planting, while supporting growers to deliver optimal quality. Additionally, ClimateAi’s Climate Analogs Tool identified potential alternatives for expansion for both the tomato seed and the leek.

Challenge 3: Identifying “tipping points” for the company’s portfolio

The company was concerned about the long-term suitability of its portfolio. ClimateAi’s Climate Lens- Assess tool was able to evaluate its country-level exposure to future climate shifts. The platform can identify tipping points: when an uncommon event (with a 25% probability) becomes a common occurrence (with a 75% probability). This will happen at a future date known as the “year of departure,” at which point a fundamental shift in the average climate will occur.


ClimateAi was able to determine what percentage of their production costs would be at risk — determining that the shift begins for half of locations within 4 years. The analysis indicated that the company’s exposure is skewed towards earlier years, increasing risk. These insights inform macro production planning around market entry and help the company make risk management decisions today to cut costs across its portfolio.


  • The company was able to secure the stability of the company’s supply to its customers — and even reduce its time to market for new varieties
  • The company assessed climate risk for two seed crops to inform decisions on long-term investment in these regions, as well as discovered alternative production regions for them to enable climate-smart geographic diversification
  • It also could understand portfolio-wide climate risk to build confidence in long-term investment strategy by identifying “tipping points” with tangible information about risks and dates to manage this risk by
  • Overall, ClimateAi reduced the costs of trials, lowered production losses (by finding more suitable locations more quickly), and enabled higher margins by finding locations that are more efficient for productions