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“There’s a 40% Chance of Rain.” Here’s What That Really Means and How to Make the Best Business Decisions in the Face of Weather Uncertainty.

Himanshu Gupta • November 29th, 2020.

Example of a reliability diagram for forecasting heat waves. On the horizontal axis, the forecasted probabilities are shown. On the vertical axis, are the corresponding actual probabilities. A good forecast should closely follow the diagonal line.

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