How Will Climate Change Impact Potatoes and What Can Growers and Sourcers Do To Adapt

Andy Paterson • August 5th, 2025.

The humble potato is a critical crop for global food security. It contributes the fourth most calories of any crop after rice, wheat, and maize. 

As climate change brings warmer, wetter weather, potato growers are facing reduced yields and quality, pushing up prices for sourcing teams and creating supply volatility. 

This article will explore the climate challenges and opportunities facing potato growers and sourcers, and how they can build resilience into potato supply chains. 

Climate Conditions for Potatoes

Potatoes are a fast-growing, resilient crop, which is why more than a billion people rely on them as a staple source of nutrition. 

They are primarily grown in cooler and wetter climates, with a temperature range of 55°F to 80°F being ideal.

Given that potatoes are grown underground, soil type, temperature, and moisture content are also crucial factors contributing to crop health and yields.

Temperatures above 80°F and waterlogged warmer soils are all issues expected to worsen under a changing climate, bringing challenges for growers, reducing yields, and increasing prices for sourcers. 

How Are Potatoes Affected by Climate Change

Potatoes are impacted by the generic climate change-driven temperature rises, more erratic precipitation, and more common extreme weather events that every crop faces. However, they also face risks specific to each potato crop variety and the region in which they are grown. 

These are the primary climate change-related issues specific to potatoes:

• A big challenge for growers under climate change is monitoring the growth rate. Growers need to track if potatoes are growing too quickly or too slowly compared to expectations for marketing and quality purposes.
• Potatoes gain most of their bulk at the end of the growing season, but with climate volatility, it’s risky to leave them in the ground too long. Accurately tracking crop progress using Growing Degree Days (GDD), which measure heat accumulation to help predict plant growth stages and pest emergence, enables growers to balance late-season yield gains against the risk of early or late harvest disruptions.
• High soil temperatures during the sprouting stage pose a greater risk than lower temperatures. However, during the planting stage, low soil temperatures pose more risks.
• Quality issues related to crop acceleration, when the potato crop grows faster than expected, can lead to quality problems and increase the likelihood of pests.

How Climate Change Impacts Potato Yields and Prices

Potato production has declined in recent years in the U.S. due to inconsistent demand, lower profits, and climate-driven threats to yields. The slowing down of domestic supply, combined with increased international demand, climate trends, and extreme weather events, has led to price increases.

ClimateAi’s Risk Outlook tool predicts a low risk for reduced yields due to climate events in the 2024/2025 growing season. However, as climate change progresses, price increases linked to climate events are expected to become more common. Years like 2022, when prices increased 40% after record droughts across the US in 2021, reduced yields across high potato-producing states are likely to be repeated.

Most studies show that as climate change increases the number of days with extreme heat global yields are likely to decline. One study predicted that yields could be reduced by up to 16% by 2035 and 85% by 2085.

Another study examining the impact of climate risks on crops found that, in early 2024, a wet winter in the UK led to price increases of 22%. As temperatures increase and climate change occurs, these prices are likely to increase further. 

How Are Potato Growers and Sourcers Adapting to Climate 

While the threats of climate change to potato yield and prices are real, some studies suggest that with increased CO2 availability, plus global adaptation, global average yields could increase by up to 17%.

Some of the adaptation strategies available to growers include:

• Using more resilient varieties: In the EU, the world’s largest producer and exporter of potatoes, selecting potato varieties that maintain their yield under climate stress is the preferred adaptation strategy. Sweet potatoes are more resistant to heat and drought, and other varieties are being developed that are more efficient with water and have deeper root systems. 
• Better, more localized forecasting: More accurate, localized weather forecasts predicting whether yield-impacting droughts, extreme temperatures, or precipitation will materialize will help in planting and harvesting decision-making. This also gives buyers a better understanding of where and when to buy.
• Accurately tracking GDDs: More accurate and localized weather will give a better measure of Growing Degree Days, a critical measurement of heat units, which is the most accurate prediction of when certain plant milestones will happen from flowering to harvesting. Accurate GDDs give growers and sourcers accurate knowledge of plant phenology and the potential for pests. This helps them apply pest controls most effectively and know exactly how many potatoes will be ready and when, streamlining operations and logistics.

How ClimateAi Can Help Potato Growers and Sourcers Build Resilience

Cookie-cutter approaches to adaptation are no longer effective for potato sourcers and growers. They need granular data at the field level, specific to the variety they are growing. ClimateAi’s range of tools gives that level of detail, enabling companies to:

• Prepare for short and long-term risks.
• Know the best time to sow and harvest when the crop is at its zenith.
• Organize transport, staffing, and other operations to optimize time and streamline costs. 

Potatoes are a critical crop for global food security, but as climate change decreases yields, pushing up prices, growers and sourcers will have to adapt.

With good adaptation strategies in place, using AI-driven climate weather tools and more resilient potato varieties, companies could actually increase yields and reduce costs.

Potatoes and Climate Change FAQs