Rice and Climate Change: What Sourcers Need to Know

Andy Paterson • June 24th, 2025.

Rice is one of the most important global food crops. Over half of the world’s population relies on rice as their primary source of calories and nutrition. As such an important staple, it’s vital for both public and private organizations to understand how rice will be impacted by climate change, to ensure food security and sovereignty, and for businesses to meet demand and price expectations. 

Climate volatility is causing droughts, excessive heat, and more extreme weather events, threatening the global yields and nutritional value of rice crops. Both growers and sourcing leaders will have to act today and adapt their strategies to ensure the rice supply meets demand at reasonable prices.

This article will explore the climate risks the global rice supply is facing, why sourcing professionals should care, and how modern AI-driven weather intelligence tools can help procurement leaders and growers build climate resilience. 

The Importance of the Rice Crop

Rice, along with wheat and corn, are the three most important global crops. In South and East Asia, 90% of the world’s rice supply is produced and consumed. In these regions, rice makes up the majority of the protein, calories, and nutrition for most of the population.

Rice is produced mainly in small subsistence farms, and is responsible for the livelihoods of more than 100 million people. In countries like the U.S., government subsidies are already being used to support rice farmers struggling with rising input costs and volatile prices, underlining the crop’s economic importance. Therefore, as climate change reduces yields, climate adaptation and resilience will be critical for food security and sovereignty, as well as for economic reasons. 

Rice Production and Climate Change

Rice is a highly weather-dependent crop requiring warm climates with abundant water. Under climate change, rice yield and quality are expected to be negatively impacted. The main climate impacts threatening rice production globally are:

• Extreme heat: High temperatures impact critical grain filling growing periods, which reduce yields and qualities. As temperatures increase, this will become more of an issue.
• Unpredictable precipitation patterns: In some major growing regions, like China, increased precipitation is the most significant risk they face. Yields could be reduced by up to 8% in China because of extreme rainfall. In other regions, droughts can impact yields by up to 90%, depending on the length, intensity, and the growing phase of the rice crop. 
• Salt Water Intrusion: Bangladesh and other rice-producing nations that are susceptible to sea-level rise are at a high risk of yield reductions due to saline intrusion into rice paddies. 
• Extreme weather events: Cyclones, hurricanes, and flooding have all impacted yields and supply chains in recent years. As these weather patterns become more severe and frequent, sourcers should expect more disruptions. 

Rice, Climate Change, and Water

Rice is a very water-hungry crop. It can take up to 5,000 litres of water to create one kilo of rice, five times more than wheat. Studies show that under severe warming scenarios, water demand for growing rice increases by up to 52%. 

However, innovative irrigation techniques, like Alternative Wet-dry (AWD) Irrigation, could be used to reduce water demand, offsetting some of those increases. 

Rice, Climate Change, and Soil

Increased global temperatures will also have an impact on soil geochemical processes. Research has shown that increased temperatures can influence the level of arsenic in soils. One study in California found that temperature-induced increases of arsenic in soils can reduce rice yields by 39%.

How Climate Risks Influence Rice Yields and Prices

Studies point to this range of climate risks leading to yield reductions, which subsequently impact procurement leaders’ prices. Some of the following examples have had significant impacts, but many more local climate-related yield reductions are leading to increased local prices. 

• In 2023, after a weak monsoon season, India put a rice export ban in place for many of their rice varietals, causing global prices to rise by 20%.
• In 2015-16, a particularly strong EL Niño resulted in reduced yields across Southeast Asia and India, increasing global prices by 16%. 
• In the U.S., rice producers have also felt the squeeze. In 2023, Congress passed $250 million in supplemental funding to keep domestic rice farmers afloat as prices lagged behind rising costs of energy and fertilizer
• In 2011, record floods in Thailand resulted in a quarter of the annual rice crop being lost, increasing prices of Thailand’s rice by a third. 
• In 2025, rice prices in Japan jumped 28% as an extremely warm growing season resulted in reduced yields and supply failed to keep up with demand.

Other Climate Risks for Rice Sourcing Leaders

Rice production is focused in India and China, the largest producers, respectively. Together, India and China will produce more than 50% of the global rice crop in 2025. 

While China uses most of its rice production domestically, India is the world’s largest exporter, making up around 40% of global rice exports. Therefore, any changes in India have a significant impact on global prices and supply. 

In 2022/2023, India put an export ban on many of its rice products, causing a price hike of up to 20%, reaching a 15-year high. India introduced the ban to limit the domestic supply running out, to reduce prices due to inflation, and to mitigate any potential yield reductions from the upcoming El Niño season. 

“India is a country that has suffered from food insecurity in a significant way, so there’s an understandable desire to ensure appropriate availability of staple foods like rice within the country.”

Will Kletter, COO, ClimateAi

This is not India’s first rice ban. In 2007-2011, they also had a similar one. In 2025, global production, consumption, and exports of rice are set to break records, mainly driven by India’s rice crop. If India were to reintroduce an export ban, or if other countries where climate stressors threaten yields were to copy India’s ban, it could lead to a global food crisis.

As climate volatility, soil degradation, and water stresses worsen with climate change, we may see other countries that depend on rice for most of their crops enact export bans. 

Rice Production in the U.S.

U.S. rice production has increased over the last 50 years. However, after a peak in 2010, due to droughts in California and excessive rains in the Mississippi Delta, production has been reduced since. 

While the U.S. is the fourth biggest exporter of rice. 2025 is set to be the biggest import year for rice in the U.S. As droughts worsen and precipitation gets more unpredictable and severe in the coming years, yields are set to reduce by as much as 41% by the 2070s. 

While research finds that increased CO2 levels will offset much of these yield losses, U.S. sourcers will likely have to increase imports in the coming years.

What Can Sourcers Do to Increase Resilience 

While the outlook for rice under climate change is complicated for procurement professionals, there are four steps they can take to increase their resilience: 

• Irrigation and Farming Techniques: New techniques like AWS and System of Rice Intensification (SRI) reduce water use, improve soil health, and reduce methane emissions (global rice production is responsible for 8% of global methane emissions. Here is how each of those techniques works:
  • AWS: Involves allowing fields to dry intermittently instead of being continuously flooded. Studies show this can save up to 34% of water usage from irrigation and reduce methane emissions by 47%.
  • SRI: Involves transplanting younger seedlings at wider spacing, while using minimal water and organic fertilization. One study found that SRI resulted in a 58% higher yield with 16% less water use.
• New Technological Innovations: New genetically modified rice seeds, designed to be more resistant to salt water, heat, and droughts, are being produced. Advanced weather intelligence tools are giving growers and sourcers the information they need to make decisions on when to plant and harvest, and where yields may be impacted. 
• Diversify Suppliers: In 2023, when the world’s largest supplier, India, had an export ban. Sourcing leaders will have to consider different suppliers in case this happens again.  

• Consider Other Climate Analogs, or Crops: As temperatures increase in some regions, non-traditional rice-growing regions are becoming viable rice-growing regions. In addition to these climate analogs, depending on the use and prices, businesses could consider another crop. As data from ClimateAi’s Yield Outlook tool shows, corn yields in India will be 22% above baseline in the coming season, meaning prices will likely be down, and making it a potential rice replacement in some use cases. 

How ClimateAi Can Help Rice Procurement

The upcoming changes in weather patterns are set to have an unprecedented impact on global rice yields and prices. Understanding when and how weather will impact rice production, how that might impact prices, export bans, and finding new viable regions could give you a competitive advantage. 

• Get Accurate, Localized, Long-term Forecasts: Know the weather events and trends that are happening in the regions you buy rice from well ahead of time to make data-driven decisions.
• Yield Forecasting: Knowing early in the season whether yields in key regions will be up or down, or the level of risk rice crops face, will help sourcers find the best regions to get spot pricing.  
• Discover Climate Analogs: Identify future-growing zones with ClimateAi’s analog analysis to plan for the future.
• Strategic sourcing: Monitoring weather risks in regions, like India, which are prone to export bans, would allow for better preparation for supply and price volatility.
• Invest in Resilience: Knowing what areas will be most impacted will help prioritize investments in adaptation spending, like water-efficient systems and regional diversification.
  

Global rice production is vital to the more than 4 billion people who rely on it for the majority of their calories. As climate change reduces the yield and quality of rice, more countries may follow India’s lead and implement a trade ban to ensure food sovereignty. 

Trade restrictions are one layer of the climate risks facing rice growers and sourcers. However, extreme heat, water scarcity, and soil degradation will lead to global yield reductions and price increases. With improved weather intelligence, rice sourcers can ensure they are ready for the next climate shock or export ban with resilient data-driven adaptation strategies.

Rice and Climate Change FAQs