Why Climate Risk Is Now the Core of Supply Chain Risk Mapping

Andy Paterson • December 22nd, 2025.

Supply chain risks are accelerating amid rising geopolitical instability, new regulations, and unpredictable tariffs. But the most significant risk facing supply chains in 2026 is climate risk. Making climate risk assessments a must for supply chain risk mapping.

Traditionally, supply chain risk mapping was performed through manual tracking and spreadsheets, which could identify only a few risks at the tier 1 supplier level. This means knowing when, where, and how risks will evolve, and how to mitigate them, is almost impossible. With AI-driven software platforms, companies now have access to dynamic, real-time information to inform procurement decisions.

Key Takeaways:

Climate risk has become the single largest driver of supply chain disruption, impacting availability, pricing, logistics, and supply continuity.
Traditional supply chain risk mapping tools lack the granularity and accuracy needed to manage climate volatility effectively.
Climate risk mapping enables predictive planning, using seasonal forecasts and high-resolution data to anticipate disruptions before they occur.
AI-driven tools allow companies to assess multi-tier supplier exposure, even when operational data is limited.
Organizations that integrate climate risk into supply chain risk mapping can reduce volatility, protect margins, and gain a competitive advantage.

What Is Supply Chain Risk Mapping

Supply chain risk mapping involves mapping a company’s materials, suppliers, and their supply routes, and assessing the potential or existing vulnerabilities in those areas. The risks they assess are then ranked by severity and likelihood. This assessment process informs decisions on whether to consider other suppliers or work with existing suppliers to change logistic timing or routes. Potential risks companies’ map could be related to:

Geopolitical
Logistical
Compliance
Environmental

Each supplier and supplier route will face different risks. Knowing when these risks could lead to material losses or order delays could be the difference between a good or bad business year.

Climate Volatility Driving Most Supply Chain Disruptions

Climate change is expected to cost global supply chains trillions of dollars by 2050. However, many companies are already experiencing supply shocks due to climate change.

In a recent survey, 99% of executives claimed that climate change is already impacting their supply chains. And in recent years, there have been multiple climate disruptions across global supply chains:

23% of all US road delays are already weather-related, costing logistics companies billions and disrupting supply chains.
A typhoon in Vietnam this year drove coffee bean prices to skyrocket.
Drought in cocoa-growing regions in Africa in recent years has prompted chocolate makers to switch suppliers and adjust recipe formulations.
Drought at the Panama Canal in 2024 caused costly, time-consuming bottlenecks and rerouting of supply routes.

As temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, climate impacts on global supply chains will accelerate.

As companies face heightened climate risks across their supply chains, the need for granular, reliable weather data across multiple time horizons, climate risk mapping, and effective adaptation strategies is becoming a critical component of supply chain risk mapping.

Why Climate Risk Mapping Must Become the First Layer of Supply Chain Risk Mapping

Some risks in the supply chain are difficult to predict, such as geopolitical issues and sub-tier supplier issues (the suppliers of suppliers). However, with new AI-driven climate models that can predict granular weather patterns and long-term climate changes, climate risk is becoming easier to assess and plan for.

Climate risk assessment platforms enable companies to easily assess risks across multiple time horizons, understand multi-tier exposure across the supply chain, not just at tier 1, and give alerts when risks turn into real hazards.

With climate risks becoming the biggest supply chain risk companies face, climate risk mapping tools have the highest ROI of any supply chain risk mapping activity, enabling companies to:

Accurately identify hazards (heat, drought, flood, storm, water stress) well before they happen.
Predict yield and quality of key crops.
Identify areas with lower risk for potential new suppliers.
Provide early warning alerts if a specific hazard is developing.

How Hitachi Can Make Better Supply Chain Decisions With Climate Risk Modeling

Japanese electronics firm, Hitachi, with suppliers in Chennai, India, mapped a cyclone in the area well in advance, enabling them to schedule deliveries ahead of the event or to source from alternative suppliers.

How AI Enables Predictive Supply Chain Risk Mapping

AI can serve as a predictive tool, accurately modeling how the weather will impact supplier nodes and routes in the short and long term. It can also go a step further by providing procurement leaders with adaptation tips tailored to the risks they face.

AI agents trained on this data can also serve as supply chain adaptation experts, assessing all potential risks and providing accurate, automated recommendations on how to prevent them. Data from AI climate tools can be integrated with existing enterprise resource tools via an API. Or, it can be combined with other relevant supply route-tracking and logistics data to provide deeper insights.

How A Roofing Manufacturer Used ClimateAi To Map Climate Risks Across Its Supply Chain

A leading roofing materials producer used ClimateAi’s climate risk forecasting to anticipate a hurricane months before it made landfall. By identifying an elevated risk of destructive winds ahead of Hurricane Ian in Florida in 2022 and translating that risk into expected demand for roofing materials, the company adjusted its supply timing and positioned inventory ahead of the hurricane. That early planning translated into an additional $15 million in sales.

The Power Of Climate Risk Mapping in Supply Chain Risk Mapping

Supply chain risks impact every sector. However, there are some more affected than others. The Food and Beverage sector, for example, is on the front line, as agriculture is among the most exposed sectors to a changing climate. Here is how climate risk mapping will help the supply chains of three of the most highly exposed sectors:

Food & Beverage:

Predicting yields: Accurate weather and biological data can help food and beverage companies forecast each supplier’s yield and expected quality. Allowing them to change supply timing, lock in prices, potentially find new suppliers, or reformulate recipes ahead of competitors.
Climate Analogs: Map future suppliers, or supply regions, by analyzing reliable long-term climate trends to identify where the crops your company needs will grow in the coming decades. Allowing food and beverage buyers to begin working with new suppliers or to work with existing ones to move operations to new areas.

Manufacturing: Identify which supplier factories and regions producing raw materials are most at risk of heat, flooding, or other extreme weather events that could disrupt labor or logistics.
Insurance: Climate risk mapping helps insurers price premiums for supply chain business insurance, giving companies with lower exposure or a strong adaptation strategy lower rates than highly exposed companies.

What Good Supply Chain Risk Mapping Looks Like in 2026

Today’s globalized supply chains are more dynamic than ever, with geopolitical flashpoints and potential black swan events, such as a global pandemic. These are difficult to predict, and their impact on suppliers is uncertain. However, the effects of climate on supply chains and the need for adaptation are becoming increasingly predictable.

To mitigate risks in 2026, ensure supply continuity, and build a competitive advantage, this is what supply chain risk mapping should look like:

Take a climate risk first approach: Climate change is the biggest source of supply chain disruption globally, and as temperatures continue to rise, it will worsen. However, it is also one of the simplest to predict and adapt to as new AI-driven climate risk mapping tools come online.
Map suppliers across multiple tiers and work closely with them to mitigate risks: While tier 1 direct suppliers are the easiest to assess and work with, 85% of supply chain risks are in tier 2-4 suppliers. For climate-driven risk, geography becomes the critical starting point for sub-tier suppliers. Knowing where upstream suppliers operate enables AI-driven tools to assess exposure to heat, drought, floods, and storms, even when detailed operational data is limited. Companies can then work through tier-1 suppliers to mitigate these upstream risks before they materialize.
Look over both the long and short term: Assessing climate risks as they materialize will ensure supply continues over the next quarter or year. However, planning for significant, long-term changes as the climate warms will help companies ensure their long-term viability and capitalize on new supply routes and suppliers.
Set up automated alerts and be ready to change plans: Work with an AI agent to receive critical alerts for a product, crop, or region when thresholds are met. Enabling companies to adapt supply planning and switch suppliers, secure early supply, or reroute shipments to ensure supply continuity.

While geopolitics and other supply chain risks are hard to predict, the accelerating impacts of climate change are becoming easier to forecast and adapt to.

The future of supply chain risk mapping will be climate-focused and informed by accurate forecasts, enabling buyers to make better, more predictive, dynamic decisions.

To gain a better understanding of the climate risks impacting your supply chain and map your supply chain risks.

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Supply Chain Risk Mapping FAQ

Supply chain risk mapping is the process of identifying suppliers, materials, and routes across a supply chain and assessing vulnerabilities that could disrupt supply, increase costs, or delay delivery.

Extreme weather and climate volatility now drive most large-scale supply chain disruptions, affecting production, logistics, pricing, and business interruption across industries. Risks are expected to accelerate as climate change worsens.

Climate risk mapping uses AI-driven climate models to assess exposure to hazards such as heat, drought, floods, and storms at specific supplier locations and along supply routes.

No. For climate-driven risks, geography is the critical starting point. Knowing where suppliers operate and what they supply enables AI tools to assess exposure even when detailed operational data is limited.

Food and beverage, agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and insurance are particularly exposed, but climate risk now affects every global supply chain.

ClimateAi provides predictive climate intelligence, seasonal forecasts, and high-resolution risk modeling that help companies anticipate disruptions and adapt proactively.

Andy Paterson

Andy Paterson is a content creator and strategist at ClimateAi. Before joining the team, he was a content leader at various climate and sustainability start-ups and enterprises.

Andy has held writing, content strategy, and editing roles at BCG, Persefoni, and Good.Lab. He has helped build one of the industry’s most popular newsletters and regularly publishes environmental science articles with Research Publishing.