ALL NEW ClimateAi Risk Outlooks Tool - Get Crop Specific Impacts with One ClickWatch Now
Madeleine Simon • February 27th, 2025.
Tomatoes grown for processing —essential for products like tomato paste, puree, and ketchup—are under increasing threat from intensifying climate events.
California, which supplies more than 90 percent of the U.S.’s crop, has faced prolonged droughts, extreme heat waves, and erratic weather patterns. These weather-related supply chain disruptions then lead to the market volatility and higher prices we see today.
Additionally, these conditions impact the quality of processing tomatoes, such as Roma and Heinz varieties, hurting producers and consumers. These specific tomatoes are used in products like ketchup because their paste has less juice and is more saturated in color, so the quality is especially crucial. The redness of Heinz ketchup, for instance, is purely from tomatoes, according to Bloomberg.
California’s 2022 growing season, described as “the worst drought in a millennium,” is a case study into how extreme weather events like heatwaves and water scarcity are reshaping the industry.
That year’s damaging heat was not only remarkable because of its intensity (frequently going over 100 degrees Fahrenheit) but also its duration. It lasted from October 2021 to September 2022 and was part of a three-year drought period that began in 2020.
According to ClimateAi’s Risk Outlook, the drought and damaging heat created a risk index of 95 out of 100 — the highest in the last two decades.
The consequences of this extreme weather were significant. California delivered nearly 5 percent less than the expected crop in 2021 and 10 percent less in 2022. Prices soared across the value chain during a time of already high inflation, with increasing costs for labor, fertilizer, and fuel for transportation.
Farmers, whose rainwater reservoirs were reduced, increasingly turned to groundwater reservoirs, which were more expensive and under statewide restrictions. The California Tomato Growers Association negotiated on behalf of tomato growers for a 5.6 percent higher price because of the escalating costs for farmers, from labor to supplies, according to the Supply Side Food and Beverage Journal.
The increasing costs were passed down to consumers. By August 2022, The Supply Side Food and Beverage Journal reported that tomato paste prices rose as much as 80 percent compared to the previous year. At the same time, the head of the California Tomato Growers Association warned of low inventory.
But the story of California’s 2022 drought is not all doom and gloom.
The resulting extreme weather disruption drove companies like Kraft Heinz to implement climate-proof adaptive measures — ultimately protecting farmers, the planet, and products.
In 2022, a spokesperson told TODAY Food that the company “put a strategy in place that uncovered new regions to source tomatoes, as well as the approach to breed unique tomato seeds that have a stronger resistance to climate challenges and are water efficient.” Heinz told TODAY Food that it had been reporting good yields and quality.
Today, Heinz’s research is “singularly focused on climate change,” Bloomberg reports, prioritizing efforts to address resilience, heat, and water stress.
This is where ClimateAi can help companies like Heinz implement climate-adaptative measures to anticipate supply risks. Our Risk Outlook, for example, forecasts how, when, and where weather-related events impact yield —showing insights from across the state or down to the kilometer.
Sourcing teams can then make informed and strategic decisions on which suppliers to work with and when, as climate change and extreme weather events continue to impact growing seasons.
As regions like California experience extreme drought conditions, companies may look toward other countries to source their tomato products. But they will need to know how these other players are faring under increasing climate risks.
Italy, another major producer, has seen similar trends in damaging heat.
Rising temperatures are also forecast to hit Chinese tomato puree production during the 2023/24 harvest, with ClimateAi’s Risk Outlook assigning a concerning 95/100 index score for climate-related risks.
While some buyers may be tempted to cheaper Chinese tomatoes—available at a lower price than Italian alternatives—their reliability is under question as adverse climate events continue to affect growing regions.
While temperatures remained high globally during the 2023/24 season, low temperatures were not a concern. However, the upward trend in heat stresses the urgency of climate-resilient solutions. Without these, ketchup shelves may not go empty, but consumers will likely see higher prices and shifting sources. Companies prioritizing innovation and sustainability, like Kraft Heinz, will play a critical role in keeping ketchup on tables despite growing challenges.
As two of the world’s top producers, the United States and Italy prepare for the season’s start in March, ClimateAi’s Risk Outlook provides early insights into how extreme weather may impact yields before processing tomatoes are transplanted to the field.
In the United States, our six-month outlook suggests low damaging heat risk from early May to mid-August, with the peak impact during the fruit development stage. Our forecast for Italy is similar – The region is expected to see a shorter window of low damaging heat risk, spanning mid-June to early August and affecting flowering through the first half of harvest.
The figures above show that the risk of severe impacts from excessive heat is small, but non-negligible. Early risk indicators like these can serve as a signal for proactive monitoring of supply and market shifts. As the season unfolds, forecast confidence will increase, providing a clearer picture of evolving threats and opportunities.