Climate Change and Spices: How Vanilla, Black Pepper, and Chili Sourcers Can Build Resilience

Andy Paterson • July 7th, 2025.

Spices were among the first globally traded commodities, and they remain foundational to the food, beverage, and cosmetic industries today. However, their production is deeply tied to specific tropical and subtropical climates, making them disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

As temperatures rise, rainfall patterns shift, and extreme weather events become more frequent, many spice crops face significant yield and quality declines. For procurement leaders and sourcing teams, the ability to assess and adapt to these risks is fast becoming a competitive advantage.

This article will examine the climate risks facing specific spice crops, including vanilla, chili, and black pepper, as well as others, and discuss what sourcers can do to mitigate their exposure to these risks.

What Climates Do Spices Grow In

Spices are typically grown in very specific climates, making them vulnerable to changes in these environments. 90% of spices are also grown on small-scale farms, meaning growers lack the resources to obtain accurate weather forecasts or conduct strategic adaptation planning. 

While every spice has a reliance on a specific growing region, the majority of spices are grown and consumed in Asia, and the major exporting countries are India, Vietnam, and Mexico. The climate risks facing these regions’ spice production include:

• India: Responsible for more than a third of global spice exports, India faces increasingly unpredictable monsoon seasons, leading to water scarcity.  Inadequate and irregular monsoon seasons make it challenging for spice growers to determine when to sow and when to harvest, which can impact yields, quality, and prices. 
• Vietnam: As the largest exporter of black pepper, the most commonly used spice, and the second largest spice exporter in general, Vietnam is an important global player. However, climate change is bringing increased temperatures and more unpredictable precipitation. Extreme heat can cause black pepper plants to drop their flower spikes early, resulting in reduced yield.  
• Mexico: Mexico is the second-largest producer and largest exporter of chilies, with most of those exports (more than 90%) going to the U.S. In 2023, an unprecedented heatwave, coupled with droughts across 70% of the country, resulted in very low yields, leading to a shortage of the Sriracha spice condiment.

While examining key growing regions is important for gaining a good understanding of how climate risks will impact yields. It’s essential to understand how each individual spice may be affected.

What Spices Are Impacted by Climate Change

Looking at the specific impacts of climate risks on various types of spices, the following examples highlight three of the main traded spices and their anticipated effects from climate change.

Climate Risks Impacting Vanilla 

Vanilla is one of the most expensive spices because it requires a labor-intensive process, has a very limited geographic range, and crops take a long time to produce commercial yields. Due to these factors, any climate shocks that impact yields could have a significant impact on the price and supply of vanilla. 

The following are the main climate risks vanilla faces:

• Geographic Isolation: Approximately 80% of vanilla is grown in Madagascar, meaning that any extreme weather event or warming trends in the region have a significant impact on global supply and pricing. In 2017, a cyclone in Madagascar caused the vanilla supply to almost come to a halt, and prices increased by 20% to $600 per kilogram.
• Pollination Difficulties: Vanilla is derived from a type of orchid, the pollination of which requires human intervention. Changing weather patterns can make it difficult to accurately time the flowering and pollination, resulting in reduced yields.
• Price Increases: As climate risks intensify, the prices of vanilla are likely to increase further, with cyclones expected to become more severe and frequent. 

Climate Risks Impacting Black Pepper 

Black pepper is known as the king of spices. It is the most widely traded and consumed spice globally. With smaller margins than most spice crops, some farmers facing reduced yields are experimenting with other crops, which, coupled with climate change, continues to increase prices. In the main black pepper exporting country, Vietnam, prices have risen so much that, despite a 5% reduction in exports in 2024 compared to 2023, the export value increased by 45%.

These are the two main climate risks black pepper sourcers and growers need to consider. 

• Diseases and Pests: Certain fungi and pepper weevils can reduce yields by up to 20%. The main fungus impacting black pepper yields, Phytophthora capsici, is predicted to become more prevalent under the wetter, hotter conditions that climate change is expected to bring.
• Rainfall: Heavy rainfall can limit flowering, reduce the rate of pollination during the flowering stages, and exacerbate the spread of fungi. Conversely, inconsistent rainfall and droughts can also reduce yields. 

Climate Risks Impacting Chili Spices

Chili peppers have a much wider geographic range and are grown in many nations worldwide. Mexico, however, is the second largest producer after China and the largest exporter. As the largest exporter, the yields there have a big impact on global supply and prices. This year, ClimateAi’s Risk Outlooks predict a medium risk of damaging heat impacting chili yields. 

The main climate-related impacts on chilies are increased temperatures, which impact yields in two ways.

• Extreme Heat and Droughts: As shown in ClimateAi’s data for 2024, there was a high risk of temperature impacts on yields. This, coupled with other factors, resulted in a very low yield in Mexico, leading to a chili shortage. 
• Pests and Diseases: Thrips parvispinus, also known as “pepper thrips,” leave scars on the plant, impacting the appearance and marketability of peppers, reducing yields by up to 85%. Thrips thrive under the hotter temperatures that climate change will bring. The chilli pepper disease Downy Mildew can lead to early rot of chilli pepper fruit, reducing yields by up to 40%.

Climate Risks Impacting Other Spices

There are dozens of other spices also facing climate risks. The table below highlights some of the risks associated with four other major traded spices: turmeric, cumin, saffron, and ginger.

The Biggest Challenges in Assessing and Adapting to Spice Climate Risks

There are similarities in how climate change will impact each spice crop. However, each spice requires a specific, nuanced strategy tailored to its unique risks and characteristics. 

There is a clear need to address physical weather-related challenges and increase sensitivity to extreme weather events, especially for specific crops (such as black pepper), which are particularly vulnerable to weather conditions. There is a need for accurate climate predictions to adjust planting strategies and mitigate the impact on crop quality and yield.

As well as the need to adapt to physical climate risks, there are more intangible adaptation needs:

• Organic Certification Compliance: Organic spice producers and sourcers face significant challenges in managing pests and diseases due to strict limitations on the types of treatments they can use. Only approved organic methods are permitted, which narrows their options for response to climate-driven increases in disease and pests. EU consumer protection rules are driving these organic spice certifications, and regularly test for fraud. Organic farming is also generally more susceptible to weather variability and more expensive to manage. That makes access to timely, location-specific climate insights especially valuable, not only for helping farmers achieve better yields, but also for procurement teams to ensure supply availability and support farmer success. This makes early warning systems especially important. Growers need enough lead time to implement preventive measures both for protecting yields and for maintaining certification standards.
• Cross-Contamination Risks: Many spices are grown on small, neighboring plots, often by different farmers with varying crops. This proximity raises the risk of cross-contamination, particularly when organic spices are grown near conventional or non-compliant crops. Certification standards impose strict limitations on what can be planted and the treatments used nearby, necessitating close monitoring of surrounding fields. Climate change adds another layer of complexity. As extreme weather events, such as floods or high winds, become more frequent, so does the risk of physical contamination across farm buffer zones, whether through wind drift, runoff, or shared water sources. This is where climate intelligence can play a critical role. Monitoring weather conditions gives critical insights into potential disruptions on neighboring plots. For example, forecasts of weather likely to drive increased insecticide spraying in nearby farms could trigger mitigative action, proactive conversations, or more rigorous testing protocols to safeguard compliance and ensure product integrity.

What Procurement Teams Are Doing To Build Resilience

The dispersed and remote nature of many small-hold farms where spices are grown makes it harder to track weather patterns and obtain on-the-ground information on conditions, quality, and yields. Currently, procurement leaders are doing the following to build resilience. 

• Monitoring and Forecasting
  • Using rudimentary weather tools that rely on publicly available weather data
  • Some larger farmers get informal long-term forecasts from personal contacts
  • Basic tracking through Excel spreadsheets 
  • Some use of local apps like Cropin (in India) for monitoring
• Supply Chain Management
  • Maintaining close relationships with growers due to certification requirements
  • Focus on maintaining consistent suppliers for long-term partnerships, to incentivize experienced growers to grow the same crop
• New Growing Regions: As climate change progresses, it will open up new regions for growing crops that were previously not viable. Canada’s changing climate has meant that saffron (typically grown in Mediterranean climates) has become a viable crop. 
• Different Formulations: Certain spices are more vulnerable to climate-related risks and are likely to experience price increases. In some cases, alternatives can be found that are cheaper. This is especially true for very expensive spices, like saffron and vanilla. 99% of vanilla flavorings are made with synthetic vanillin, and saffron is regularly replaced with turmeric. 

These are helping sourcers mitigate climate risks today, as risks accelerate in the future, more in-depth, accurate, and decision-useful climate intelligence will be needed

How ClimateAi Helps Spice Procurement Leaders Build Resilience and a Competitive Advantage

As climate volatility increases, both large food and beverage companies and smallholder farmers are facing growing uncertainty. New tools, such as ClimateAi’s Risk Outlook, provide them with localized climate forecasting and predictive analytics, enabling spice growers and sourcers to better manage risk, build resilience, and strengthen relationships across the value chain.

Climate intelligence allows buyers and growers to benefit in two main ways:

Enhanced Forecasting Capabilities

• Early warning systems for disruptive weather events, like Madagascar’s cyclone that wiped out 30% of its vanilla crop, will enable growers to act before the storm hits. 
• Larger sourcing companies will enhance their sustainability performance, particularly in areas such as supply chain resilience and farmer support. They will be able to share this information in their annual reporting, increasing transparency and meeting the rising expectations of regulators and consumers.
• Longer-term, location-specific climate predictions to guide investment, sourcing, and a more tailored growing strategy.
• Support for proactive pest and disease control, particularly important for organic certifications

Stronger Relationships Through Shared Data

• The tool provides forecasts of weather conditions, like extended monsoons or early cold spells, that can improve decision-making around farming practices. Sharing these insights helps growers make better-informed choices and strengthens supplier relationships.
• In-season monitoring of temperature and humidity also enables early warnings for pests and diseases. Pest risks are expected every year, but knowing when they’re likely to occur allows growers to prepare in advance, tracking, trapping, or spraying before problems escalate.
• Seasonal outlooks can also help guide planting strategies. In regions expecting unusual weather, some growers may stagger planting to reduce risk across fields. Providing this level of insight builds trust and supports long-term supplier resilience.
• Reducing crop loss risk by acting on early warnings for heat, drought, or extreme weather events will be mutually beneficial.

Climate change is the biggest risk the global spice trade has faced in its many centuries as a worldwide trade commodity. Businesses are already feeling the pinch and are reacting, but as risks accelerate, they will need new tools to work with their suppliers to ensure they maintain yields, supply, and prices.

Companies that align procurement strategies with climate intelligence will enable high-quality adaptation strategies to build resilience. 

Spice Climate Risks FAQs